TDRI ព្រមានថា ការចាកចេញរបស់នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី Paetongtarn អាចប៉ះពាល់ដល់សេដ្ឋកិច្ច ទំនុកចិត្ត និងកំណើន GDP យឺត
A court ruling forcing the Prime Minister to suspend her duties would cause a temporary economic standstill and an immediate drop in investor confidence by pausing budget disbursements and stimulus measures.
A resignation by the Prime Minister is viewed as a more damaging scenario, creating a political vacuum that could halt economic measures and cause a sharper decline in confidence.
The TDRI warns that any political standstill resulting from the Prime Minister's potential exit could negatively affect Thailand's projected 2025 GDP growth of 1.8–2.0%.
Nonarit Bisonyabut, Senior Scholar at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), stated that if the Constitutional Court rules on 29 August that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is not guilty and can resume her duties following the audio clip conversation with Hun Sen, President of the Cambodian Senate, it would have a positive effect on the economy in the short term.
This would help ease concerns over a political vacuum, allowing economic stimulus measures and infrastructure investment projects to continue progressing, he said.
“Although the fragility of the parliamentary majority remains a constraint on deep economic restructuring, overall, it is expected to immediately boost investor and financial market confidence.
Concerns about potential protests are acknowledged as part of citizens’ rights and freedoms. However, based on recent experience, such demonstrations are unlikely to escalate into disorder that would harm the economy or society.”
However, if the court rules that the prime minister has committed a serious violation, requiring her to suspend duties and prompting the selection of a new leader, the economy would face a temporary standstill, particularly in budget disbursements and stimulus measures, which could slow short-term recovery. Investor confidence would take an immediate hit. Yet, if the new leader demonstrates capability and earns economic credibility, confidence could rebound quickly.
“As the prime minister steps aside and a new leader is appointed, the economy will face a temporary pause, and confidence will drop immediately due to uncertainty. However, if the incoming leader is competent, confidence could recover rapidly. It remains crucial to see who that person will be,” Nonarit said.
Ultimately, if the prime minister chooses to resign following the court’s ruling, while this would ease ethical pressure, it would create a clear political vacuum.
This could extend to the dissolution of parliament and a fresh election, halting economic measures and prompting investors and markets to interpret it as a sign of persistent political fragility. Confidence could therefore decline more sharply than in other scenarios.
Nevertheless, the public would have the opportunity to choose a new leader through elections, potentially yielding long-term benefits.
“As for Thailand’s economic growth in 2025, it is expected to reach around 1.8–2.0% for the year. However, political standstills could negatively affect this figure, presenting both challenges and opportunities as outlined,” Nonarit concluded.
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