ការវាយតម្លៃហាងឆេងបេក្ខជននាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីទាំង៥រូបប្រសិនបើលោក Paetongtarn ធ្លាក់
As the political landscape shifts, we examine the potential chances of 5 key candidates stepping up as Prime Minister if Paetongtarn Shinawatra is ousted.
In just a moment, we will know the fate of Thailand's 31st Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, in the case of the leaked audio conversation with Hun Sen, President of the Cambodian Senate.
The Constitutional Court is set to deliver its verdict on August 29, which will have significant implications.
Regardless of whether the decision is positive or negative, it will inevitably affect the political landscape moving forward.
Scenario 1: If the outcome is "positive," Paetongtarn will remain as Prime Minister, and the government, with its slim majority of 260 seats, will continue to run the country.
However, challenges remain, including the recent sharp drop in approval ratings and a precarious government majority. The opposition has often tested the government's stability in Parliament, as seen in numerous attempts to challenge quorum requirements.
Currently, the government faces multiple hurdles, one of the most pressing being the stalled 20-baht flat-rate public transport policy, which was initially set to launch on October 1. Due to delays in passing the necessary laws, such as the Rail Transport Bill and the Public Transport Ticketing System Bill, implementation has been postponed by at least a month.
Even Suriya Juangroongruangkit, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport, acknowledged that delays in Parliament are to blame, making this a significant issue for both the government and the ruling Pheu Thai Party, which may be struggling to find solutions.
Scenario 2: If the outcome is "negative" and the court rules that Paetongtarn is no longer eligible to hold office, Thailand will enter the process of voting for a new Prime Minister, the 32nd of the country, and the third in two years since the 2023 elections.
This would mark a key turning point in the country's political landscape, with numerous political strategies currently being played out as it navigates this uncertain moment.
The 5 Potential Prime Minister Candidates
Should Paetongtarn Shinawatra be removed from office, five candidates could be proposed by political parties to fill the position:
- Chaikasem Nitisiri (Pheu Thai Party)
- Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai Party)
- Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha (United Thai Nation Party)
- Pirapan Salirathavibhaga (United Thai Nation Party)
- Jurin Laksanawisit (Democrat Party)
Chaikasem, as the remaining Prime Minister candidate from Pheu Thai, has appeared publicly several times, showing his readiness to step in as Prime Minister should the Constitutional Court rule against Paetongtarn.
Pheu Thai has insisted that if Paetongtarn does not continue, Chaikasem must become the 32nd Prime Minister, reinforcing the party's power dynamics and its refusal to relinquish control easily.
Given the current unstable political environment, many are questioning whether the government will last its full term until 2027. Consequently, attention has turned to the possibility of dissolving the House, which Pheu Thai may push for, especially as they gain control of the Ministry of the Interior. There are two possible scenarios:
If Paetongtarn remains Prime Minister, Pheu Thai will continue its governance efforts and try to regain public support.
If Paetongtarn is ousted, Chaikasem could step in as a temporary Prime Minister to maintain political stability until a strategic time for dissolution.
Chaikasem: The Final Answer for Pheu Thai?
Although Chaikasem is seen as the logical choice for Pheu Thai in the event of a negative ruling for Paetongtarn, his selection is not guaranteed. If we look back to August 14, 2023, when the Constitutional Court ruled Srettha Thavisin out of office, Chaikasem's name was the first suggested after a meeting with Thaksin Shinawatra.
However, the next day, a dramatic shift occurred when coalition parties raised concerns about supporting a Prime Minister candidate who favoured revising the Penal Code, Section 112 (the Lèse-Majesté law).
Ultimately, Paetongtarn was nominated and later confirmed by Parliament as the 31st Prime Minister.
Thus, Chaikasem's future as a candidate still depends on several variables, including parliamentary support from coalition parties and any special signals that may emerge in the process.
Launching a Trial Balloon for Gen Prayut
Amid various political strategies currently being speculated, the name Gen Prayut has emerged as a key figure, often referred to as the "spiritual leader" of the conservative camp.
This comes in line with the results of a Nida Poll conducted in July, which asked the public who they would support as the next Prime Minister, should Paetongtarn Shinawatra be removed due to political issues. The poll revealed that Gen Prayut ranked first with 32.82% of the vote, while 27.94% of respondents said they would not support anyone at all.
While questions have arisen regarding the appropriateness of nominating Gen Prayut, given that he is currently serving as a privy councillor, it is important to note that, legally, he is still considered a potential Prime Minister candidate for the United Thai Nation Party.
Moreover, the current political landscape clearly highlights the ongoing "mass movement" strategy, where supporters of the former Prime Minister stir up nostalgia for Prayut, while others, especially those opposed to him, continue to scrutinise his leadership, particularly his role in border issues during his tenure as Army Commander.
These factors underscore that Gen Prayut's name remains a significant political figure, and his candidacy cannot be dismissed at this stage.
Next, Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, and leader of the United Thai Nation Party, is one of the five Prime Minister candidates that political parties have the right to propose.
However, in reality, it must be acknowledged that Pirapan is currently embroiled in several ongoing legal cases, with eight cases under investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).
Although no formal charges have been filed against him yet, and Pirapan remains presumed innocent, this situation remains a significant risk factor when considering his qualifications for the position of Prime Minister. It is an issue that cannot be overlooked.
Furthermore, the situation within the United Thai Nation Party should not be ignored. The party is currently in a state of internal division, with clear factions, including the " Pirapan faction" and the "business elite faction".
This division has reached a point of no reconciliation. As a result, Pirapan's chances of rising to the leadership of the country have diminished significantly.
Anutin's Strategy: "Opportunity Knocks?"
Next, the name of Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, has emerged as a significant political figure. Although his party is currently in the opposition, recent news of his meetings with Sarath Ratanavadi, Vice Chairman and CEO of Gulf Development Co., a major political donor, has sparked speculation about his potential readiness for the role of Prime Minister.
There are also reports of a political and business alliance, involving both politicians and business tycoons on the opposition side, pledging more than 2 billion baht to overthrow Paetongtarn Shinawatra and clear the way for a new government. These developments have inevitably linked Anutin to the potential reshaping of the political landscape.
This all points to a keen political manoeuvring under Anutin’s style of leadership, often referred to as "Sia Nu's strategy", a reference to his autobiographical book, where he sums up his approach as: "Where there is an opportunity, there is Anutin."
Meanwhile, Jurin Laksanawisit, leader of the Democrat Party, despite holding 25 seats in parliament, finds his chances of rising to the leadership position slimmer due to internal divisions within the party and the relatively weak bargaining power of his party's seat count.
This situation seems to be a countdown to see whether Thailand's political landscape will shift, potentially leading to a new power dynamic and possibly even a reshuffling of leaders in a major overhaul.
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