ហេតុផល៥យ៉ាង ប៉ាតុងតឺនអាចរួចជីវិតពីករណីឃ្លីបសំឡេង ហ៊ុន សែន
The conversation could be interpreted as a legitimate negotiation tactic, consistent with the "Getting to Yes" strategy, by focusing on interests to solve a problem.
The phone call may be viewed as an informal, personal discussion ("uncle to nephew") rather than an official diplomatic conversation between national leaders.
It could be argued that the subsequent border conflict and casualties are unrelated to, and not a direct result of, the phone conversation.
The Thai government's planned countermeasures against Cambodia were already in place, indicating the call did not weaken the nation's political standing or response.
Her actions may not meet the high legal standard of a "severe violation of ethical standards" required for dismissal, even if they are seen as diminishing the dignity of her office.
August 29, 2025, the day the Constitutional Court delivers its verdict on Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the Prime Minister, in the case regarding the leaked audio conversation with Hun Sen, will not only determine her fate but also mark a turning point for Thailand’s political future.
If Paetongtarn is ousted, the entire Cabinet will need to resign, and the process of electing a new Prime Minister and forming a new Cabinet will begin. However, if she survives, the youngest Prime Minister will face an uphill battle with numerous challenges ahead.
Amidst predictions that "the Prime Minister will survive," one question lingers: How will the court frame its decision to declare that the audio clip with Hun Sen does not cause damage to the country, particularly with the ongoing border conflict where Thai soldiers continue to suffer casualties?
The latest news reveals that another Thai soldier lost a leg, bringing the total to six.
Nation TV analysed the likelihood of Paetongtarn’s survival, providing the following five reasons that could justify her being cleared of charges, without overstepping the court’s discretion:
1. The "Getting to Yes" Strategy Works
"Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In" is a bestselling 1981 non-fiction book by Roger Fisher and William Ury.
While Paetongtarn didn’t reference another related book, "Getting Past No: Negotiating in Difficult Situations" by William Ury, as part of the full negotiation process, as suggested by Wanchai Watthanasap (who translated the series into Thai), the principle of separating people from the problem, even if it involves criticizing "your own people", aligns with core negotiation theory.
Focusing on the “interests” or “concerns” of only one side could lead to a favourable outcome in the spirit of Getting to Yes, which advocates for a collaborative approach to problem-solving.
2. The Conversation with Hun Sen Was "Uncle to Nephew"
The phone call was not a formal diplomatic conversation between Thailand's Prime Minister and the full-power leader of Cambodia, but rather an informal discussion between an "uncle and his nephew."
3. The Aftermath of the Conflict Is Unrelated to the Phone Call
The subsequent conflict and the issues arising from it are unrelated to the phone conversation between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen.
4. Government Measures Against Cambodia Were Already in Place
The Thai government had already planned to escalate its countermeasures against Cambodia, and this was not a reaction to the audio clip, nor did it weaken Paetongtarn’s political standing.
Her Actions Do Not Constitute a "Severe Violation of Ethical Standards"
While Paetongtarn's actions may not align with some ethical standards, they do not rise to the level of "severe violations" that would require immediate dismissal. For example, while her conduct might have diminished the dignity of her office (ethical standard 14), it did not harm the nation’s honour (ethical standard 6). Therefore, this does not violate the most severe ethical standards.
If this reasoning is accepted, it’s expected that the verdict will be passed 9-0 to avoid causing discomfort for the minority in explaining their position to society.
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